The signals were in the filings.
Every time.
Four companies. Four collapses. Four cases where the SEC filings disclosed the risk months before the market priced it in. The data was public. Almost nobody read it.
Silicon Valley Bank
Risk language quietly removed, deposits down $16B year-over-year. Tracenotes flagged it 14 days before the FDIC seized the bank.
WeWork
Once valued at $47B, WeWork disclosed $10.7B in cumulative losses and going concern doubt months before Chapter 11.
Carvana
Insiders sold $4.2B before the stock fell 99%. The same family is now selling again, in similar size, at similar prices — under a 10b5-1 plan this time.
Bed Bath & Beyond
Going concern warnings, cash burn acceleration, and supplier relationship breakdown — all in the September 2022 10-Q.
Mallinckrodt
Opioid liability provisions exploded across consecutive 10-K filings. The financial deterioration was visible for years.
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