Validated Case Studies
The signals were in the filings.
Every time.
Four companies. Four collapses. Four cases where the SEC filings disclosed the risk months before the market priced it in. The data was public. Almost nobody read it.
Bank CollapseSIVB
Silicon Valley Bank
Risk language quietly removed, deposits down $16B year-over-year. Tracenotes flagged it 14 days before the FDIC seized the bank.
14 days early
Bankruptcy: March 10, 2023
COVID risk language removedDeposit balance dropped $16BRisk disclosures softenedForward-looking caution eliminated
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Real Estate CollapseWE
WeWork
Once valued at $47B, WeWork disclosed $10.7B in cumulative losses and going concern doubt months before Chapter 11.
3+ months early
Bankruptcy: November 6, 2023
Going concern language addedCash fell to $205M$10.7B cumulative losses disclosedMember churn language intensifying
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Retail BankruptcyBBBY
Bed Bath & Beyond
Going concern warnings, cash burn acceleration, and supplier relationship breakdown — all in the September 2022 10-Q.
7 months early
Bankruptcy: April 23, 2023
Going concern warning added Sep 2022Negative operating cash flow 3 quartersInventory collapse detectedDebt covenant violations surfaced
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Pharma BankruptcyMNK
Mallinckrodt
Opioid liability provisions exploded across consecutive 10-K filings. The financial deterioration was visible for years.
Years of signals
Bankruptcy: October 12, 2020
Opioid provisions surging each yearRevenue decliningDebt restructuring language expandingCongressional probe language added
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